New York's marquee November auctions arrive with roughly $2 billion of art heading for the rostrum, and the three big houses are leaning hard on the stories behind the collections to move it. Across Sotheby's, Christie's and Phillips, seven evening sales are expected to realise more than $1.7 billion, with about 64.2 percent of that value backed by guarantees.

Sotheby's leads, projecting $975.3 million to $1.3 billion across four sales, against $1 billion in the equivalent sales last year. The headline act is the Blaquier-Arrieta collection on Wednesday, a trove of Belle Epoque French painting described as a miniature Musée d'Orsay and estimated at $414.5 million to $462.1 million, with all 12 lots guaranteed. Leading it are Van Gogh's Châtaignier en fleurs roses et blanches from 1890, estimated in the region of $180 million, and Cézanne's Arlequin, a portrait of the artist's son, at around $120 million. The modern evening sale that follows is expected to fetch $260.2 million to $378.4 million, topped by a Magritte from Sydell Miller's collection at $25 million to $35 million.

Sotheby's opens with the single-owner Baum sale: 24 lots, all guaranteed, estimated at $74.4 million to $109 million, led by a Joan Mitchell at $12 million to $18 million. Its Now and Contemporary sale is pitched at $226.2 million to $323.1 million. Christie's projects $683 million to $990 million from its two main sales, down from $813.5 million last November. Its 20th-century sale on Tuesday, 79 lots, is estimated at $544.9 million to $789.8 million, with a Kandinsky and a Klimt landscape each at $60 million to $80 million. The 21st-century sale on Thursday leads with 20 lots from Antonio Homem Sonnabend's holdings, plus groups from the Koons and Gund collections.

Phillips expects $70.4 million to $99.4 million from 23 lots on Tuesday, up from $67.3 million last year, led by Modigliani's Tête at $28 million to $35 million. Advisers say the pattern is unmistakable: in a cautious market, buyers pay for provenance and distinct collections, and the houses have responded by guaranteeing most of what matters.