Confidence in the contemporary art market has moved into positive territory for only the third time in more than four years, according to the latest edition of ArtTactic's twice-yearly survey. The headline indicator climbed from 43 in March 2026, a reading that signalled mild pessimism, to 56 in September, a level suggesting most participants now view conditions as good, if only just. The figures put numbers to a mood of cautious recovery building in trade reporting since the spring.

The survey questions collectors, advisers, auction staff and other participants in the United States and Europe, converting answers into scores from zero to 100. Both previous spells of optimism proved brief: after touching 75 in February 2022 the indicator fell to 42 within five months, and a reading of 54 in January 2025 collapsed to 30 half a year later. ArtTactic founder Anders Petterson argues this time may prove more durable, because the improvement seems grounded in a genuine sales recovery rather than hope alone. In January 2025, 39 percent had expected Donald Trump's return to the White House to lift the market; instead, tariffs and uncertainty dragged confidence down.

The recovery is uneven, however. Confidence in the auction sector jumped to 78 from 69 in March, powered by strong results at the top end, while the primary market edged up only to 51 from 45. Petterson cautions that most of the auction rebound remains concentrated above one million dollars, and it is unclear how quickly that strength reaches lower-priced galleries and artists. Asked about the next six months, 60 percent expected sales to stay flat, a verdict Petterson reads as stability rather than decline.

American adviser Adam Green says persistently high prices for new work have pushed several clients toward auction houses and private resellers, where they can buy closer to what they consider fair value. Green believes the recovery is broadening, though its full extent may not be clear until the end of the year. The test comes soon, with New York's marquee November auctions, the first Frieze Abu Dhabi and the latest Art Collaboration Kyoto all ahead.